Overview
- An Ipsos I&O poll conducted Oct. 23–24 projects 26 seats for PVV, 23 for the red‑green alliance, and 22 for D66 out of 150.
- In an Oct. 23 TV debate, VVD, CDA and GroenLinks/PvdA leaders targeted Wilders and restated refusals to govern with his party.
- The Oct. 29 election was triggered after Wilders withdrew PVV from the coalition in June over unmet demands for a tougher immigration plan.
- Wilders paused campaigning on Oct. 11 citing fears after his name appeared in police files linked to a suspected Islamist plot, then returned on Oct. 15.
- With 27 parties contesting and no majority expected, coalition talks will begin on election night and could drag on, as the last formation took 223 days.