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Dutch Election Nears With Wilders Leading Polls but Facing Isolation

Major parties have ruled out partnering with Geert Wilders, making a post-election coalition highly uncertain.

Election billboards of 26 of the 27 political parties participating in the Oct. 29 general elections are lined up in The Hague, Netherlands, Wednesday, Oct. 22, 2025. (AP Photo/Peter Dejong)
Election campaign boards are displayed ahead of the Dutch parliamentary election on October 29, in The Hague, Netherlands, October 7, 2025. REUTERS/Piroschka van de Wouw
Election campaign boards are displayed ahead of the Dutch parliamentary election on October 29, in The Hague, Netherlands, October 7, 2025. REUTERS/Piroschka van de Wouw/File Photo
Dutch GroenLinks-PvdA leader Frans Timmermans, People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) party leader Dilan Yesilgoz, Democrats 66 (D66) party leader Rob Jetten, Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) party leader Henri Bontenbal,  JA21 party leader Joost Eerdmans, and Socialist Party (SP) leader Jimmy Dijk stand together before an election debate starts in the run-up to the House of Representatives elections in Hilversum, Netherlands, October 19, 2025. REUTERS/Piroschka van de Wouw     TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY

Overview

  • One week before the Oct. 29 vote, forecasts put PVV at about 34 seats, with GroenLinks/Labour at 25, CDA at 23, D66 at 16 and VVD around 15.
  • Roughly 47% of voters were still undecided a week out, underscoring the potential for late shifts in the outcome.
  • CDA, VVD and GroenLinks/Labour have all excluded working with Wilders, and VVD also rejects a coalition with GroenLinks/Labour, complicating any path to a majority.
  • Voters rank the housing shortage as the top issue, with an estimated shortfall of around 400,000 homes and competing party proposals on construction, regulation and social housing.
  • Migration dominates the campaign as Wilders pushes a total halt to asylum seekers that legal analysts say breaches treaties, while recent anti-migration protests turned violent and security concerns prompted him to briefly pause campaigning.