Overview
- An ANP provisional estimate with more than 90% of votes counted projects D66 and PVV level on 26 seats each, narrowing an earlier Ipsos/NOS exit poll that put D66 on 27 and PVV on 25.
- The exit poll, based on roughly 80,000 voters at 65 polling stations, suggests Rob Jetten’s D66 edged ahead, positioning him to lead talks and potentially become the Netherlands’ youngest and first openly gay prime minister if results are confirmed.
- Geert Wilders’ PVV is on track to lose around a third of its 2023 seats, and most mainstream parties have reiterated they will not join a coalition with him, making a PVV-led government unlikely.
- Projections show VVD in the low-20s, the GreenLeft/Labour alliance around 20, and the Christian Democrats near 19 seats, with Frans Timmermans announcing he will step down after a disappointing night for GL/PvdA.
- No party can reach the 76-seat majority alone under the proportional system, and negotiations are expected to focus on voter priorities of migration, a severe housing shortage, and healthcare after the PVV-led coalition collapsed in June.