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Duma Signals Q1 2026 Passage of Tiered Family Mortgage Rates

The draft redirects support to larger households by linking rates to child count, with a proposed one‑loan limit starting February 1, 2026.

Overview

  • Financial Market Committee chair Anatoly Aksakov told RIA Novosti he expects the bill to be adopted in the first quarter of 2026.
  • The Finance Ministry’s concept sets about 12% for families with one child, 6% for two, and 4% for three or more, replacing today’s 6% flat rate.
  • The proposal also limits families to a single subsidized mortgage beginning February 1, 2026.
  • Talks continue among the Duma, the Central Bank, the Finance Ministry and the Construction Ministry, with developers objecting and Sberbank warning higher rates could reduce issuance.
  • Market participants report a rush to lock in current terms, and analysts forecast weaker sales and notable discounts by late Q1 to early Q2 2026.