Overview

• The byelection in Arthabaska on Aug. 11 features a projected dead heat between Conservative Leader Éric Duhaime and the Parti Québécois candidate.
• A victory for Duhaime’s party would mark its first seat in the National Assembly after failing to win any in the 2022 election.
• The governing Coalition Avenir Québec looks set to relinquish the riding for the third successive byelection in under two years.
• The contest follows the resignation of the CAQ incumbent, who left to pursue a federal Conservative nomination earlier this year.
• Parties view the outcome as an early barometer of voter sentiment heading into the October 2026 provincial vote.