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Dueling Polls Put Likud on Top as Israel’s Coalition Math Remains Unclear

New surveys from Channel 12 alongside Channel 14 diverge on seat totals, highlighting uncertainty over whether any bloc can assemble a majority.

Overview

  • Channel 12 projects Likud at 27 seats with the governing coalition on 51 versus 69 for the opposition.
  • The Channel 12 poll shows Bennett’s list at 22 seats, Otzma Yehudit rising to eight, and Religious Zionism, Kahol Lavan, Balad and the Reservists below the threshold.
  • A separate Channel 14 survey puts Likud at 35 seats and reports Arab parties climbing to a combined 11.
  • The Channel 14 poll finds Benjamin Netanyahu preferred for prime minister with 53% and shows Blue and White failing to cross the threshold.
  • Channel 12’s poll used a 503-person sample with a ±4.4% margin of error, underscoring methodological differences behind the split projections.