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3w ago

Dueling Polls and Shutdown Jolt Virginia Governor’s Race

Virginia’s large federal workforce makes the shutdown a potent late-campaign issue.

Voters cast ballots at the Loudoun County Office of Elections and Voter Registration in Leesburg, Virginia, on September 19, the first day of early voting.
BUENA VISTA, VIRGINIA - SEPTEMBER 01: Virginia Republican gubernatorial candidate, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R), and Virginia Democratic gubernatorial candidate, former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (L), wait to speak at the 54th Annual Buena Vista Labor Day Festival on September 01, 2025 in Buena Vista, Virginia. The Commonwealth of Virginia will hold its off-year election for governor and other statewide offices on November 4. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)
Winsome Earle-Sears, Republican gubernatorial candidate for Virginia, speaks during a campaign event at the Vienna Volunteer Fire Department in Vienna, Virginia, on July 1.
L: Former Rep. Abigail Spanberger attends a campaign event in Louisa, Virginia, on November 1, 2018. R: Virginia Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears presides over the state Senate on February 8, 2022.

Overview

  • New Emerson College/The Hill polling shows Abigail Spanberger leading Winsome Earle-Sears 52%–42%, while an A2 Insights survey puts the race at 48%–45%, highlighting a sharp divergence.
  • The federal government shutdown has become a central campaign fight in a state with more than 300,000 federal workers, with both campaigns issuing statements blaming the other side.
  • Early in-person voting began Sept. 19, and Emerson reports voters who already cast ballots favored Spanberger 60% to 38%.
  • Earle-Sears is saturating the airwaves with transgender-policy messaging, spending over $2 million in September on related ads to energize conservatives and sway independents.
  • Spanberger is emphasizing jobs and costs and is airing a new ad attacking Earle-Sears on abortion, as polling identifies the economy as voters’ top concern at about 35%.