Overview

• Week 6 features 15 games with the Vikings and Texans on bye and a Monday Night Football doubleheader that includes Buffalo at Atlanta at Mercedes‑Benz Stadium.
• Sportsbooks have Buffalo as a road favorite, with reported spreads ranging from Bills -3.5 to -5.5 and totals clustered near 48 to 50 points.
• Dimers’ 10,000‑simulation model estimates a 67% Bills win probability but identifies Falcons +5.5 as the best bet.
• SportsLine’s model takes a stronger stance on Buffalo, projecting an outright win in nearly 80% of simulations and a cover in well over 70%.
• ESPN Analytics gives the Bills a 60.7% chance to win, as analysts also spotlight upset risk and model plays elsewhere, including Cowboys and Buccaneers to cover and Lions +2.5 against the Chiefs.