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Dueling Israeli Polls Keep Likud Ahead and Coalition Prospects Murky

Threshold crossings and small‑party shifts shape sharply different coalition maps.

Overview

  • Channel 14’s survey puts Likud at 35 seats and the right‑wing bloc at 66, with Benjamin Netanyahu leading the prime‑minister suitability question at 53%.
  • The same Channel 14 poll shows Yair Golan’s Democrats up to 11 seats as Naftali Bennett’s party slips to 11, with Shas and United Torah Judaism steady at 11 each.
  • Channel 12’s poll finds Likud at 26 seats with Bennett on 22 and the Democrats on 12, concluding neither bloc can form a government without cross‑bloc cooperation or Arab party support.
  • Channel 12 reports the opposition on 59 seats versus 51 for the coalition and notes Arab parties holding a combined 10 seats in its snapshot.
  • Religious Zionism fails to clear the threshold in Channel 12’s poll but barely makes it in Channel 14’s, while Blue and White and Balad fall short in Channel 14’s results.