Overview

• Russia’s seaborne crude shipments held near a 16‑month high over the past four weeks at about 3.57 million barrels per day, Bloomberg reported.
• JPMorgan estimates Russian refinery throughput has dropped below 5 million barrels per day, the lowest since April 2022 following Ukrainian drone attacks.
• Primorsk, Novorossiysk and Ust-Luga have only about 165,000–265,000 barrels per day of spare capacity, limiting further diversion of crude to exports.
• Fuel shortages have prompted rationing and price freezes in several Russian regions as Moscow restricted gasoline and diesel exports, while Belarus shipped 49,000 tonnes of gasoline and 33,000 tonnes of diesel to Russia in September.
• President Volodymyr Zelensky said the government will keep a fixed household gas price and approved a moratorium on disconnections in frontline communities, and Energy Minister Svitlana Hrynchuk said Ukraine plans to raise gas imports by about 30% if capacity expands for October–December.