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last mo.

Drifting SpaceX Rocket Stage Expected to Strike Moon in Early August

Orbital and ground teams are mounting coordinated observations to measure ejecta, test impact models and spotlight gaps in cislunar debris disposal.

a SpaceX rocket launching into space
The SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket booster is shown outside the company’s facility in Hawthorne, California, US.
The impact is expected to take place near Einstein Crater on the Moon’s sunlit western limb.
A SpaceX rocket will slam into the daylight side of the moon, pictured in 2010 courtesy of NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, on Aug. 5.

Overview

  • The object is a leftover upper stage from a January 2025 launch that carried two commercial lunar landers and has been tracked by independent teams as it moved into a moon-crossing orbit.
  • Predictive calculations place an accidental impact on the Moon’s near side near Einstein Crater in early August with an estimated strike speed of about 5,400 mph and energy roughly equal to three tons of TNT.
  • NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and South Korea’s Danuri are scheduled to take before-and-after images of the site, with Danuri passing very near the stage minutes before impact.
  • Amateur and professional observers in eastern North America and parts of South America are preparing to search for a brief impact flash and a longer-lived plume of ejected lunar dust that could be visible through telescopes.
  • Researchers say the event is a rare chance to validate crater and ejecta models and that the accidental strike underscores shortcomings in current disposal practices for rockets in cislunar space as lunar activity expands.