Overview

• Multiple outlets report that Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves intend to argue Brexit drove the expected downgrade, assigning responsibility to Nigel Farage’s role in the 2016 campaign.
• Officials are preparing for the OBR to cut productivity forecasts, with estimates pointing to an extra shortfall of around £20bn that would be addressed through tax increases.
• Reform UK is sustaining strong polling in the low‑to‑mid 30s, with recent surveys showing Labour near 20% and the Conservatives in the teens.
• Rachel Reeves has urged business leaders to talk up the economy, with Treasury messaging warning that pessimism could further lift Reform’s support.
• Critics, including Boris Johnson and multiple commentators, question both Reform’s uncosted pledges and the government’s plan to pin forthcoming tax pain on Brexit.