Overview

• Revised BLS data show May and June job gains slashed and unemployment up to 4.2%, stoking concerns over labor-market strength.
• Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller dissented on July 30 and Bowman says the latest data reinforce her forecast for three rate cuts this year.
• Fed officials including Lisa Cook, Mary Daly and Alberto Musalem have expressed growing unease about job-market fragility and signaled openness to easing policy.
• Fed futures assign an 85% probability to a September rate cut and foresee roughly 50 basis points of easing by year-end.
• Chair Jerome Powell remains cautious and says the Fed needs clearer inflation evidence—particularly on tariff impacts—before moving to lower rates.