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Doumbouya Poised for Victory as Guinea Nears First Presidential Vote Since 2021 Coup

Analysts describe an uneven race favoring the junta chief.

FILE - Guinean soldiers secure the area outside a polling station before Gen. Mamadi Doumbouya arrives to cast his vote in the constitutional referendum, in Conakry, Guinea, Sunday, Sept. 21, 2025. (AP Photo/Misper Apawu, File)
Guinean leader Mamadi Doumbouya waves after submitting his candidacy at the Supreme Court ahead of the presidential election scheduled for December 28, in Conakry, Guinea, November 3, 2025. REUTERS/Luc Gnago/File Photo
FILE - Guinea's junta leader Col. Mamady Doumbouya watches over an independence day military parade in Bamako, Mali on Sept. 22, 2022. (AP Photo, File)
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Overview

  • Polling is set for December 28 with about 6.7 million registered voters choosing among nine candidates, and provisional results are expected within 48 hours.
  • A constitution approved in September removed barriers to the military ruler’s candidacy and lengthened the presidential term from five to seven years.
  • Key opposition figures such as Cellou Dalein Diallo and Sidya Toure were kept off the ballot under residency rules, while major parties faced suspension or dissolution.
  • ECOWAS has deployed an observer mission despite Guinea’s suspension from the bloc, as observers and analysts question the fairness of the contest.
  • Doumbouya’s campaign draws strength from the official launch of the Simandou iron-ore project and resource-nationalist policies promoted as economic gains.