Overview
- Multiple mid‑October surveys show Republican Byron Donalds leading Democrat David Jolly, including a Stetson University poll released Tuesday that put Donalds at 52 percent to Jolly’s 41 percent and an internal Fabrizio, Lee & Associates memo showing a 49–43 lead for Donalds.
- David Jolly says about 10 percent of Black voters remain undecided and is concentrating town halls, campus visits and a coalition of Black leaders on persuading that bloc while Donalds runs an outreach operation that also courts Black churches and barbershops.
- The Stetson poll stands out for estimating about 27 percent Black support for Donalds, a level that would exceed typical Republican performance and that many analysts flagged as an outlier.
- Critics have pointed to specific methodological issues in recent surveys, including Stetson’s use of an opt‑in online panel, unusual party and racial composition in the sample, and reliance on demographic weighting rather than the state voter file.
- Donalds holds a large cash advantage and a vigorous field program that the campaign says knocks tens of thousands of doors daily, but polling variance and remaining undecideds keep the outcome uncertain and leave turnout and late persuasion as the key things to watch.