Overview
- Sportsbooks list Miami as about a six-point favorite, with FanDuel at -5.5 and -295 on the moneyline and BetMGM at -6, and totals ranging from 41.5 to 42.5.
- The Dolphins are 4-7 after two straight wins and a bye week, while the Saints are 2-9 following a loss to the Falcons.
- Saints running back Alvin Kamara left the last game with a knee injury and his return timeline is unclear, rookie Tyler Shough continues at quarterback, and New Orleans brings a top-10 pass defense.
- National and local prediction panels, including USA TODAY and the Sun Sentinel, largely pick Miami to win and often to cover the spread, with analytic models giving the Dolphins the higher win probability.
- Playoff simulations cited by the Palm Beach Post keep Miami under 1% at present and only around 18% even with a 10-7 finish, underscoring the need to win out and get help.