Overview

• Traders price quarter‑point reductions at the final two Fed meetings of 2025 with another in early 2026, keeping the dollar index near one‑week lows around 97.20 before a modest rebound.
• Odds of an October cut are about 90% by market pricing, even after Powell reiterated the need to balance inflation risks with a weakening job market.
• EUR/USD hovers near 1.18 after an earlier post‑Fed spike faded, while USD/JPY stalls near the 148.50 resistance area and NZD/USD holds around 0.585.
• Australia’s dollar firmed after August CPI rose 3.0% year over year with core at 2.6%, leading traders to trim odds of an RBA cut by year‑end to roughly one‑third.
• Gold trades at or near record highs as easier Fed policy is priced, while concerns about Fed independence add pressure to the greenback.