Overview
- The dollar index fell from a roughly five‑month peak and ended slightly lower after a stock market recovery reduced liquidity demand for the greenback.
- U.S. October ADP payrolls rose by 42,000 and ISM services climbed to 52.4, with the prices‑paid gauge hitting a three‑year high, briefly lifting the dollar before risk appetite improved.
- Markets now imply about a 60%–62% chance of a 25 bp Federal Reserve cut in December, down from nearer 70% earlier in the week.
- The prolonged U.S. government shutdown continues to weigh on markets and limit official data releases, keeping FX volatility elevated.
- The yen held near 154 per dollar as Japanese officials flagged concern over rapid moves and BOJ minutes signaled caution on hikes, while gold and silver advanced on safe‑haven interest and central‑bank buying.