Overview
- Stronger Tankan survey results and recent BoJ signals have lifted odds of a 25 bp hike to roughly 83%, boosting the yen into Friday’s decision.
- Markets have largely priced a Bank of England rate cut this week, with probabilities in the high 80s to 90s, placing emphasis on guidance for any follow‑up moves.
- The European Central Bank is expected to hold rates steady, though some desks are speculating about the possibility of a hike further out, keeping attention on President Lagarde’s tone.
- A backlog of U.S. releases delayed by the shutdown concentrates catalysts, with November nonfarm payrolls on Tuesday and CPI on Thursday seen as pivotal for the dollar and rates.
- Canada’s inflation report, particularly the Trimmed Mean CPI, is due today after the Bank of Canada held steady last week without validating near‑term hike bets.