Overview
- Fed funds futures now imply roughly a 70% probability of a rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s December meeting, according to CME FedWatch.
- The dollar index fell about 0.5% to 99.674 in early Asian trading as investors shifted toward easier policy expectations.
- With the official non-farm payrolls release postponed by a government shutdown, traders leaned on private gauges, including a Challenger report showing over 150,000 announced layoffs in October.
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week that a December cut was not guaranteed, and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee urged caution given the lack of official inflation and jobs data.
- The Canadian dollar stayed weak after USD-CAD broke above 1.4080 resistance, trading near 1.4110–1.4140 as softer oil prices and Canada–U.S. yield moves added pressure.