Overview

• Futures and swaps price a 0.25 percentage point Fed cut today, with market odds near 96%, as investors await the policy statement and press conference.
• The dollar index and short‑term Treasury yields declined as markets positioned for easier US policy after Powell’s earlier signals at Jackson Hole.
• In Brazil, the dollar closed at R$5.2981, the weakest finish since June 6, 2024 for the US currency, and the Ibovespa traded above 144,000 points.
• Brazilian DI rates fell across the curve before Copom, with consensus pointing to the Selic held at 15% given tight labor conditions and sticky services prices.
• IBGE reported unemployment at 5.6% in the May–July quarter, a series low, while Stephen Miran’s Senate confirmation and a court decision shielding Lisa Cook drew attention to the Fed’s voting dynamics.