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Dollar Heads for Worst Year Since 2017 as Claims Data Gives Late Bounce

A late lift from better jobless claims did little to alter expectations for easier Fed policy next year.

Overview

  • Weekly initial jobless claims fell to 199,000, briefly lifting the greenback before year-end, yet the dollar remains down about 9.5% for 2025 and on track for its steepest annual drop since 2017.
  • The euro has surged roughly 13.5% and sterling about 7.6% this year, marking their biggest annual gains in eight years.
  • Futures markets are pricing about two Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, while the Fed's own projections point to just one.
  • President Donald Trump says he will announce his pick for a new Fed chair in January, keeping attention on the central bank’s independence.
  • CFTC data show investors have been net short the dollar since April, supporting a persistent sell-dollar stance.