Overview

• CME FedWatch shows about an 86% probability of a September rate cut after Governor Christopher Waller said he wants to begin easing and expects more reductions.
• The dollar index is on pace for a roughly 2% August decline as investors reposition for lower U.S. rates.
• President Trump's bid to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook led to her lawsuit asserting he lacks authority to fire her, raising concern over the central bank’s independence.
• Markets are awaiting the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, with July PCE seen at 2.6% year over year, followed by next week’s U.S. labor report.
• Tokyo consumer inflation registered 2.6% year on year and Asian stocks were mixed, while U.S. second‑quarter GDP was revised to a 3.3% annualized pace.