Overview
- Federal investigators, working with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, are reviewing at least four large wagers that preceded public statements by President Donald Trump or Iran’s foreign minister and profited as crude fell, according to ABC News.
- Data from the London Stock Exchange Group cited by ABC News show bets of about $500 million on March 23, $960 million on April 7, $760 million on April 17, and $430 million on April 21 placed minutes or hours before those announcements.
- Public market data also captured an unusual burst of trading on Wednesday before an Axios peace report, including about 17,300 front-month WTI contracts worth more than $1.7 billion and an estimated $920 million in new short positions flagged by The Kobeissi Letter.
- Market analysts quoted by MarketWatch called the pre-report surges suspicious yet stressed that proving insider knowledge is difficult because the available trade data show timing and size but not who placed the orders.
- Repeated pre-announcement trading can push honest hedgers to the sidelines, which can raise costs for airlines and fuel buyers who use futures to lock in prices and can weaken trust in energy markets.