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DOE Warns U.S. Blackout Risk Could Double by 2030 Without More Baseload Power

Its analysis ties AI-driven load growth to planned retirements of 104 gigawatts, warning that outages may stretch to 800 hours annually by 2030.

The sun sets behind power lines above the plains north of Amarillo, Texas, U.S., March 14, 2017. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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Overview

  • The report finds that retiring 104 GW of coal, gas and nuclear capacity by 2030 could increase blackout risk across the country by 100%.
  • It projects average annual outage time rising from about 8 hours today to over 800 hours if only planned additions proceed.
  • Of the 209 GW of new capacity slated to come online, just 22 GW is classified as firm baseload while the rest consists of solar, wind and battery storage.
  • The DOE attributes at least 50 GW of an estimated 100 GW peak demand increase to power-hungry AI data centers, compounding reliability challenges.
  • Advanced Energy United has challenged the report’s methodology, warning that it may overstate risks and undervalue renewable and storage resources.