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DOE Warns of Surge in U.S. Blackouts as AI Drives Power Demand

Retirement of 104 gigawatts of baseload capacity against just 22 gigawatts of firm additions forecasts more than 800 annual blackout hours by 2030

The sun sets behind power lines above the plains north of Amarillo, Texas, U.S., March 14, 2017. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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Overview

  • The Department of Energy report finds planned retirements of coal, natural gas and nuclear plants will outpace firm generation growth over the next five years.
  • Massive deployment of wind and solar cannot fill the reliability gap created by retiring baseload resources under current grid assumptions.
  • Peak-hour electricity demand is expected to climb by at least 100 GW by 2030, with AI data centers accounting for about 50 GW of that increase.
  • Without timely replacement of firm capacity, annual outage hours could jump from single digits today to over 800 hours by the end of the decade.
  • The administration is urging accelerated deployment of baseload sources alongside grid-planning reforms to avert a doubling of blackout risk