Divided Predictions for U.S. Economy in 2024 Amid Recession Fears

Despite steady growth and a robust job market, a majority of Americans believe the economy is in a recession, while financial institutions offer varying forecasts.

• Despite steady economic growth and a robust job market, a recent survey by Bankrate reveals that nearly 60% of Americans believe the U.S. economy is in a recession. This sentiment cuts across generational and income lines.
• Top U.S. banks Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan Chase predict a “limited risk” and a “risk of recession,” respectively, for 2024. Deutsche Bank and Société Générale both predict a recession in the first half or middle of the year.
• Despite the high GDP growth of 5.2% in the third quarter of 2023, it is not clear if it will last, and other indicators, including inflation, have failed to move in a positive direction, measuring 3.2% for the year in October.
• The non-partisan Leading Economic Index predicts a recession early next year, resulting in only 0.8% GDP growth for the entire year.
• Forecasts from major financial institutions for the stock market in 2024 range from potential economic downturns to the continued strength of the bull market.

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