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2w ago

Disinflation Persists as U.S. CPI Eases and India’s Wholesale Prices Turn Positive

Softer U.S. consumer inflation has markets leaning toward a late‑January Fed hold.

Employees work at an auto production center in Dearborn, Michigan, on January 13, 2026.
Employees work on the assembly line at the Ford River Rogue complex, Tuesday, Jan. 13, 2026, in Dearborn, Mich. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
Produce is displayed at Best World Supermarket in the Mount Pleasant neighborhood of Washington, D.C., U.S., August 19, 2022. REUTERS/Sarah Silbiger/File Photo
A resident carries grocery bags on Oct. 31, 2025, in New York.

Overview

  • U.S. consumer prices in December rose 0.3% month over month and 2.7% year over year, with core CPI up 0.2% on the month and 2.6% on the year.
  • U.S. producer prices for November increased 0.2% from October and 3.0% from a year earlier, with energy driving a rebound in goods prices as services were flat; the report was delayed by the federal shutdown.
  • Following the CPI release, CME Group data showed roughly 95% odds that the Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged at its January 27–28 meeting.
  • India’s wholesale inflation rebounded to 0.83% year over year in December after a 0.32% contraction in November, with manufactured products inflation at 1.82%, fuel and power at −2.31%, and food deflation narrowing to −0.43% including vegetables at −3.50%.
  • Economists noted core WPI near 2% and flagged base effects, commodity prices, and currency moves as upside risks, while separate data showed U.S. import prices up 0.4% over September–November and nonfuel import prices up 0.9% year over year.