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Discounters Surge as Dollar General, Dollar Tree Lift Outlooks on Trade-Down Boom

Higher-income shoppers are shifting to value chains in a sign of budget pressure.

Overview

  • Dollar General posted Q3 revenue of $10.65 billion with same-store sales up 2.5% and earnings of $1.28 per share, topping estimates as gross margin expanded about 107 basis points.
  • The company raised full-year guidance to earnings of $6.30 to $6.50 and comparable sales growth of roughly 2.5% to 2.7%, citing stronger traffic and improved shrink control.
  • Management said business from higher-income households grew disproportionately, with customer traffic up 2.5% and average transaction size flat.
  • One day earlier, Dollar Tree reported adjusted EPS of $1.21 on sales of $4.75 billion, same-store sales up 4.2%, gross margin up 40 basis points, and a guidance raise to $5.60 to $5.80.
  • Dollar Tree said about 3 million more households shopped its stores in Q3 with roughly 60% earning over $100,000, while it repurchased $399 million of stock and accelerated multi-price store conversions.