Overview
- Sunday evening’s first ARD/Infratest Dimap projection put the AfD at about 44.5 percent and the CDU at roughly 18.5 percent, making the AfD by far the strongest force but leaving its absolute majority uncertain.
- Whether the AfD can form a government hinges on tight arithmetic around smaller parties, especially whether the BSW clears the 5 percent threshold and how Greens, SPD and Linke seats shift the balance.
- Mainstream parties have largely ruled out working with the AfD, while AfD leader Ulrich Siegmund said he would seek a stable majority and is open to talks but will not accept makeshift arrangements.
- Voter mobilisation and polarization were intense with turnout far above 2021 and mass demonstrations reported, and economists plus business leaders warned that an AfD government could deter skilled workers and investors.
- What to watch next are the official provisional counts due overnight, the final result in the coming days and the early rounds of coalition or minority‑government talks that will decide who governs Sachsen‑Anhalt.