Overview
- Paraná Pesquisas surveyed 1,506 DF voters from Oct. 23–27 and found Celina Leão at 32.2% and José Roberto Arruda at 29.8% in the first round, a margin-of-error tie of ±2.6 points.
- A simulated runoff between Celina Leão and José Roberto Arruda registered 42.5% to 42.4%, indicating an effectively even contest.
- In stimulated tests for the two DF Senate seats, Michelle Bolsonaro polled around 34% and Ibaneis Rocha about 30% across scenarios.
- On the spontaneous Senate question, roughly 83% did not name a candidate, with Ibaneis Rocha the top mention at 3.8%, underscoring broad indecision.
- The poll reports 61.0% approval for Governor Ibaneis Rocha’s administration against 35.9% disapproval, at a 95% confidence level.