Overview

• Seventy-five of the world’s poorest countries are set to repay a combined $22 billion to China in 2025, the highest annual service cost on Belt and Road loans to date.
• Loans extended between 2012 and 2018 have reached their repayment phase, triggering a surge in debt servicing obligations and reversing Beijing’s role from lender to collector.
• In 54 developing countries, repayments to China now exceed those owed to the Paris Club, jeopardizing funding for health, education and climate initiatives.
• Overall repayments from developing economies may total at least $54 billion this year, outstripping new Chinese lending and creating large net financial outflows.
• Beijing confronts pressure to recover debts from quasi-commercial lenders even as it weighs the diplomatic costs of restructuring unsustainable loans.