Overview
- The developing El Niño, reported on June 6, has Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperatures at or above the +0.5°C identification threshold and shows weaker trade winds and increased central Pacific atmospheric activity.
- Forecast confidence is low because a March–May predictability barrier left models widely spread and the atmosphere has not fully coupled with the ocean, so forecasters say June forecast updates are needed to narrow intensity estimates.
- Several climate models run to date simulate very large warming—some with anomalies above +2°C consistent with historically strong El Niño events—but those projections remain unconfirmed pending improved atmospheric signals and updated forecasts.
- Seasonal outlooks for June–August already favor warmer-than-normal winter temperatures across Argentina with mixed rainfall chances that raise flood risk in major river basins such as the Paraná, Paraguay and Uruguay.
- Agricultural and water experts urge anticipatory measures—reservoir and field water storage, adjusted planting and livestock plans, and drainage monitoring—to reduce flood losses or capture benefits depending on how the event evolves.