Overview
- Deutsche Bank analysts Michael Hsueh and Bryant Xu report the BSADF test still classifies the gold move that began in August 2024 as an ongoing explosive episode, supporting their view that the long-run uptrend has not broken.
- The bank publishes a model fair value of $4,700 an ounce and keeps a conservative Q4 2026 price target of $4,600, which imply roughly 14–17% upside from spot prices around $4,000–$4,100.
- Gold surged to record highs in January and then corrected about 28%, but Deutsche Bank's regression work finds a statistical floor near $3,700 and an expected bottom around $3,900, a shallower drop than some rate-focused models that put a bear case near $2,600.
- Short-term gains have been helped by reports that the US, Iran and Oman may near an interim Strait of Hormuz deal, which lowered market-implied odds of a September Fed hike into the mid-50s and reduced near-term inflation pressure that had pushed metal lower.
- Structural demand remains a key support as central banks continued heavy purchases and Chinese gold-backed ETFs drew inflows, a mix that traders say helps keep prices above the roughly $4,000 level and shapes investor decisions about portfolio exposure.