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Deutsche Bank Raises S&P 500 Year-End Forecast to 6,550 on Lower Tariff Impact

Reducing tariff headwinds to a third of earlier estimates, strategists warn trade policy swings could trigger sharp pullbacks

A trader works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., May 19, 2025. REUTERS/Jeenah Moon/File Photo
The logo of Deutsche Bank is seen on the roof of a building outside a Deutsche Bank branch office in Malaga, Spain, April 24, 2024. REUTERS/Jon Nazca/File Photo
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Overview

  • Deutsche Bank lifted its S&P 500 year-end target from 6,150 to 6,550, implying a 10.35% gain from the index’s last close of 5,935.94.
  • The bank increased its S&P 500 earnings-per-share estimate to $267 from $240, reflecting stronger corporate profitability.
  • May marked the S&P 500’s best monthly performance since November 2023, driven by robust earnings, tame inflation alongside a softer U.S. tariff stance.
  • Other major firms such as Goldman Sachs, UBS Global Wealth Management as well as RBC Capital Markets have also increased their S&P 500 forecasts in recent weeks.
  • Deutsche Bank cautioned that cycles of tariff escalation and de-escalation could produce sharp market pullbacks despite the ongoing rally.