Overview
- By 2035, one in four people in Germany will be 67 or older, up from one in five in 2024.
- The 67-plus population is set to rise by about 3.8 to 4.5 million by 2038 to 20.5–21.3 million, lifting their share to 25–27%.
- The working‑age group (20–66) declines from 51.2 million in 2024 to 45.3 million with high migration by 2070, 41.2 million with moderate migration, or 37.1 million with low migration, and immigration cannot close the gap.
- The old‑age dependency ratio rises from 33 people aged 67+ per 100 of working age today to 43–61 per 100 by 2070, depending on the scenario.
- Under moderate assumptions Germany’s population is 74.7 million in 2070, with a scenario range of 63.9–86.5 million and only two of 27 variants showing slight growth; eastern states shrink in all cases, western states at best hold steady, and city‑states grow only with sustained medium or high net migration.