Deputies’ Survey Puts Lula as 2026 Favorite, Government Approval Nears Tie

Overview

• Genial/Quaest finds 43% of deputies see Lula as the strongest candidate for 2026 versus 42% for an opposition name, up from 35% versus 50% in June.
• Deputies’ evaluation of the government improved to 38% approval and 40% disapproval, from 27% approval and 46% disapproval in June.
• Independents drove the change, with Lula’s perceived favoritism rising from 23% to 40% and negative views of the government falling from 44% to 24%.
• Security surged as the top concern, with 43% citing violence as the country’s main problem and nearly half supporting the Security PEC.
• A 58% majority said Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement would help an opposition candidate; the survey interviewed 167 deputies from Oct. 29 to Dec. 11 with a ±7-point margin of error.