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Democrats’ Two-Point Ballot Lead Lags Historic Pre-Midterm Benchmarks as Disillusionment Rises

Cook Political Report projects Republicans could gain a net 12 seats based on seat-level ratings that depart from past wave cycles

WASHINGTON, DC - APRIL 30: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) (C) joins Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer (D-NY) and dozens of fellow Democratic lawmakers to mark the first 100 days of President Donald Trump's second term in the White House on the East Steps of the U.S. Capitol on April 30, 2025 in Washington, DC. Democrats have been highly critical of the scope and methods of Trump's work to transform the federal government, including sweeping tariffs, clashing with colleges and universities, shrinking of the federal workforce, and attacking the judiciary and journalists. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
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Overview

  • Democrats hold a two-point generic congressional ballot lead in July 2025, compared with seven-point advantages in the same pre-midterm period in 2005 and 2017.
  • Analysts say the current cycle resembles 2024 more than the wave elections of 2006 and 2018, dampening expectations of a Democratic surge.
  • Seat-level ratings forecast by Cook Political Report indicate Republicans have more pickup opportunities and could gain a net 12 seats in 2026.
  • A CNN/SSRS poll finds 72% of Democrats are extremely motivated to vote, but both parties suffer record-low favorability with just 28% viewing Democrats favorably and 33% approving of Republicans.
  • Nearly six in ten Americans say most congressional incumbents do not deserve reelection and 63% support forming a new third party despite just 25% backing Elon Musk’s proposed ‘America Party.’