Overview
- A Tennessee House special election stayed in GOP hands but saw a 13‑point shift toward Democrats, with Republican Matt Van Epps winning by 9 points where Trump won the district by about 22 in 2024.
- Analysts now frame Democrats as favored to retake the House in 2026, with some commentary suggesting a competitive Senate map if current trends persist.
- Trump’s approval has weakened, with the RealClearPolitics average at 42% and another cited reading at 36%, as polls show 43% approval and 55% disapproval on the economy and only 32% approval on inflation.
- Affordability dominated recent Democratic blowouts in New Jersey and Virginia, where every county moved left as candidates centered rising costs in their campaigns.
- Signs of institutional hedging include JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon declining to contribute to Trump’s fund, while immediate policy risks include expiring health‑care tax credits covering roughly 22 million people that could drive average premiums up about 114%, even as immigration polling is relatively stronger and foreign‑policy moves like a Gaza ceasefire face mixed perceptions and Venezuela‑related controversies.