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Democrats Ride Anti-Trump Backlash to 2025 Wins, Setting Up a 2026 Test

Analysts say voter backlash to Trump powered the wins.

Overview

  • Abigail Spanberger captured Virginia’s governorship with the largest Democratic margin in more than 60 years, and Mikie Sherrill won New Jersey by about 13 points with strong gains in Black and Hispanic areas.
  • New York City elected Zohran Mamdani mayor, and California voters passed Proposition 50 by roughly two to one, setting in motion redistricting changes with potential House implications.
  • Exit and post-election polls showed majorities in California, Virginia, and New Jersey said Trump was a factor in their vote, and independents broke for Democrats in Virginia and New Jersey.
  • Harvard scholars credited disciplined campaigns, robust ground games, and a focus on quality-of-life and affordability concerns for broadening Democrats’ appeal.
  • Experts warn the party must craft a clear affordability agenda and manage center-left versus progressive tensions, with 2026 cast as a must-win year to secure at least one chamber of Congress.