Overview
- The midterm results, reported Wednesday, put Democrats ahead in the national House popular vote by about 13 points, roughly four points more than the Silver Bulletin polling average.
- This cycle reversed recent patterns because polls undercounted Democratic turnout rather than missing Republican voters as they did in 2016 through 2024.
- Errors were much larger in some states with polls underestimating Democratic support by roughly five to nine points in places such as South Carolina, Mississippi, Texas, Georgia, and North Carolina.
- Many pollsters had applied post‑2024 fixes — weighting by party or past vote, discounting respondents judged unrepresentative, and using new likely‑voter models — and those choices appear to have traded one type of miss for another.
- A small group of firms including AtlasIntel, Tufts, New York Times/Siena, Change Research, and RMG produced final polls close to the actual margins, a result that will shape industry reviews, media coverage, and campaign planning going forward.