Overview
- New York Times/Siena polling conducted in late September to early October shows Democrats leading Republican rivals in Iowa, Ohio, Texas and Alaska.
- Iowa showed the largest shift with Rob Sand ahead of Zach Lahn by about 11 points while Amy Acton led Vivek Ramaswamy 49% to 45% in Ohio.
- Gina Hinojosa led Governor Greg Abbott 49% to 46% in Texas and Jonathan Kreiss‑Tomkins led Bernadette Wilson 52% to 48% in Alaska.
- Kansas stood apart as the only surveyed state with a Republican lead, where Ty Masterson led Cindy Holscher 49% to 44%.
- The White House has shifted messaging to tax cuts and immigration and Republican groups are reallocating ad spending, but analysts warn turnout patterns, the Senate map and past polling misses could still change outcomes.