Overview
- The NBC News poll of 1,000 registered voters, conducted Sept. 11–15 and reported Sept. 20, found only 23% of Democrats now plan to vote by mail compared with 34% at a similar point in 2024.
- Democratic voters in the poll said they plan to vote in person 36% early and 36% on Election Day, giving Democrats a large advantage among early voters and Republicans an edge on Election Day according to the pollsters.
- Republican voting-method preferences were essentially unchanged in the survey with about 16% saying they will vote by mail, 26% early in person, and 53% on Election Day.
- Courts have kept federal changes to mail-ballot rules from taking effect, including a Supreme Court block of the President’s executive order, leaving uncertainty over federal standards while election officials and Postal Service staff raise readiness concerns.
- The shift matters because states run elections and any drop in mail voting could change turnout timing, strain in-person polling places, and alter which voters are decisive in close contests; mail voting itself expanded sharply after 2020 and has been the focus of partisan litigation since then.