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2w ago

Democrats’ Midterm Edge Shrinks to Two Points as Republicans Gain Ground

Polls alongside district-level data show the 2026 cycle tracks last year’s narrow contests rather than past blue-wave years.

WASHINGTON, DC - APRIL 30: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) (C) joins Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer (D-NY) and dozens of fellow Democratic lawmakers to mark the first 100 days of President Donald Trump's second term in the White House on the East Steps of the U.S. Capitol on April 30, 2025 in Washington, DC. Democrats have been highly critical of the scope and methods of Trump's work to transform the federal government, including sweeping tariffs, clashing with colleges and universities, shrinking of the federal workforce, and attacking the judiciary and journalists. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
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Overview

  • Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot by just two points, less than half their seven-point advantages in July 2005 and 2017.
  • House district analyses reveal Republicans hold more net pickup opportunities than Democrats at this stage of the campaign.
  • Current polling dynamics mirror the tight contests of the 2024 cycle instead of the decisive waves of 2006 or 2018.
  • President Trump’s low approval ratings have not produced a substantial midterm polling boost for Democrats.
  • Harry Enten warns that without a significant shift in polling trends, Democrats face an uphill battle to reclaim the House majority.