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Democrats Lead by Double Digits as Trump’s Approval Falls to Record Low

A string of national polls gives Democrats a clear edge that could flip the House and make the Senate competitive, a shift that would increase congressional oversight of the Iran war and the administration.

People stand outside the Typhoon Texas Waterpark on the first day of in-person early voting for the midterm elections in Pflugerville, Texas, US, October 19, 2026. REUTERS/Jan Sonnenmair
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People wait in line to vote early in the midterm elections, at the Marty Robbins Recreation Center in El Paso, Texas, on Monday.
People arrive and depart outside the Typhoon Texas Waterpark to cast their ballots during the first day of in-person early voting for the midterm elections in Pflugerville, Texas, US, October 19, 2026. REUTERS/Jan Sonnenmair

Overview

  • Polls published Monday, including a Reuters/Ipsos survey, show Democrats ahead roughly 47% to 35% on the generic congressional ballot while President Trump’s approval sits near 31%.
  • Major forecasters and aggregators now favor Democrats to win control of the House and see realistic paths to gain the four Senate seats needed for a majority.
  • Voter frustration over rising living costs is a key driver of the shift, with reporting noting gasoline prices up about 50% and diesel up roughly two thirds since the US‑Israeli campaign against Iran began in February.
  • Analysts warn the national lead may not map directly to seats because of polling blind spots, mid‑decade redistricting, early voting patterns and a substantial Republican cash advantage that has only recently been deployed.
  • Congress has already voted in the House to constrain the president’s war powers, and a Democratic majority would quickly expand subpoenas, hearings and oversight into the Iran conflict and broader administration actions.