Overview
- A Washington Post‑Ipsos survey conducted July 8–13 shows registered voters favor Democrats 48% to 45% while highly motivated voters back Democrats 53% to 45%.
- The poll finds Democrats are about 10 points more likely than Republicans to say they are “absolutely certain” to vote, an enthusiasm gap that expands the Democratic advantage among likely voters.
- Analysts say partisan redistricting gives Republicans a structural seat edge so Democrats may need to win the national vote by roughly three to four points to flip the House.
- Republicans have trimmed the Democratic margin since May and party strategists are pushing fear‑focused messaging to energize the GOP base and blunt the Democratic turnout advantage.
- President Trump posts low approval on top voter issues in the poll, especially the economy, immigration and the Iran conflict, which could shift the race if pocketbook concerns change before November.