Overview
- Multiple forecasters and polling models, including CBS News’s House model that estimates roughly 229 Democratic seats, showed a sustained October advantage for Democrats in the race for the House.
- House Speaker Mike Johnson has publicly rejected those forecasts, saying “these polls are off” and urging Republicans to rely on turnout and late campaign resources instead of public polls.
- The credibility of some polling inputs has been questioned after Wedgewood Polling admitted most of its surveys were fabricated, a disclosure that has increased scrutiny of how polls are collected and used in models.
- Voter concern about affordability and the Iran war is driving preferences, with surveys finding gas and food prices top issues and many Democratic voters saying their main motive is to oppose President Trump rather than endorse a specific Democratic agenda.
- A net gain of roughly three House seats would hand Democrats control and allow them to limit the president’s foreign‑policy moves, restore or redirect foreign aid, and influence federal spending, a shift that markets and policymakers are watching because of its potential effect on energy policy and fiscal choices.