Overview

• Sabato’s Crystal Ball predicts Democrats are slightly favored to retake the House in 2026, though the race remains highly competitive.
• The initial ratings identify 19 toss-up districts, with Democrats needing to win nine and Republicans requiring 11 to secure a majority.
• Historical trends favor Democrats, as the party out of the presidency typically gains House seats in midterm elections.
• Republican vulnerabilities, including redistricting challenges in Ohio and ties to former President Trump, could hinder their efforts to maintain control.
• Early campaign strategies, such as targeting vulnerable GOP incumbents like Pennsylvania’s Brian Fitzpatrick, reflect an increasingly aggressive and continuous election cycle.