Overview
- A run of 2025 races produced sizable Democratic overperformance across red, purple and blue areas, capped by a 71.5% landslide in an Iowa state Senate special election.
- Renee Hardman’s Iowa win makes her the first Black woman elected to that chamber, and Democrats in Mississippi ended a 13-year Republican supermajority in the state Senate.
- Nonpartisan analyses now view a Democratic House takeover in 2026 as likely, while the Senate map presents a steeper climb.
- DNC chair Ken Martin declined to release the party’s 2024 postmortem, prompting criticism from Democrats who argue donors and volunteers deserve answers.
- Voters prioritized affordability in 2025 contests, redistricting remains a major wild card for next year, and early 2028 positioning by Gavin Newsom and Vice President Vance is influencing party dynamics.