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Democratic Wins in N.J. and Va. Expose Cracks in Trump’s 2024 Coalition

Exit polls tie the shift to backlash over immigration enforcement.

Overview

  • Democrats won the governorships decisively, with Mikie Sherrill taking 56.6% in New Jersey and Abigail Spanberger 57.3% in Virginia, according to official tallies.
  • CNN exit polling shows Latino voters backed Sherrill by 68% and Spanberger by 67%, reversing GOP gains reported in 2024.
  • AP/Fox News voter analysis indicates young men swung toward Democrats, with Sherrill winning 18–29-year-old men by 14 points and Spanberger taking 58% of young men.
  • Both Democrats carried about 7% of 2024 Trump voters in their states, a small but decisive share identified by CNN’s exit polls and subsequent analyses.
  • Turnout surged and Democrats flipped multiple legislative seats, while analysts debate whether the GOP’s touted multiracial coalition was overstated and warn Republicans to recalibrate before 2026.